Maritime Freight Rates Continue to Fall Despite New Trade Agreements
Maritime freight rates from China and Europe to the U.S. have dropped by up to 59% since June. But why new trade deals are failing to stabilize the market?
Can Trade Agreements Save the Shipping Industry?
Not for now.
The ocean container shipping industry continues to face steep rate declines, despite recent trade agreements signed by the United States with key partners such as the European Union and China. According to the latest analysis by ocean freight intelligence platform Xeneta, diplomatic efforts have so far failed to revive a market in steady decline.
Major Rate Drops on Key Routes
Since June 1:
- Container rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have plummeted by 59%, now sitting at USD 2,268 per FEU (40ft container).
- Rates to the U.S. East Coast have dropped 43%, reaching USD 3,796 per FEU.
- Even typically more stable routes, such as North Europe to the U.S. East Coast, have seen a 5% drop since June and a 25% decline since January, now at USD 2,000 per FEU.
Trade Agreements: Symbolic Rather Than Effective
According to Xeneta Senior Analyst Emily Stausbøll, the current trade agreements do not provide significant support to the sector:
“A 15% tariff on imports from the EU is not good news for carriers—it’s just not as bad as it could have been.”
The “Cargo Rush” Effect Has Faded
In April and May, many importers front-loaded their shipments to take advantage of a brief dip in rates. That short-lived bubble has since burst, and rates are falling again—particularly on Asia-to-America routes.
Capacity Cuts: An Insufficient Strategy
Carriers are attempting to reduce capacity on key U.S.-bound routes, but they face a larger challenge: an oversized global container fleet.
Although some companies reported record profits in previous years, they are now facing a completely different outlook.
Market Indicators in the Red
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell by 3.3% last week, marking six consecutive weeks of decline.
Projections indicate continued imbalance between supply and demand through the second half of 2025.
There is also uncertainty around:
- The potential implementation of new U.S. sanctions on Chinese vessels (expected by October).
- The possible impact of future tariffs under Trump-era mandates.
Will Rates Rise Again? Unlikely.
Despite attempts to introduce General Rate Increases (GRIs) on transpacific routes, the industry remains skeptical. Demand is still weak, and structural market conditions do not support a quick recovery.
Recent trade agreements have not been enough to stop the global decline in maritime freight rates. Oversupply, soft demand, and political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on an industry that no longer enjoys the post-pandemic boom years.
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Image by Rimidolove / Envato License
